Almonty not affected by customs duties
Based on current information, the business activities and product exports of Almonty Industries Inc. (WKN: A1JSSD | ISIN: CA0203981034 | Ticker symbol: ALI) are not affected by the recent US government regulation on reciprocal tariffs on selected imports. The order, published on April 2, 2025, provides for new tariff measures targeting certain Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) codes. After a thorough review of Annex I and Annex II of the order, titled "Regulation of Imports with Reciprocal Tariffs to Address Trade Practices Contributing to Large and Persistent Annual Trade Deficits of the United States of America," the Company can confirm that Almonty's tungsten ore, concentrates, oxides, and related materials are not subject to the newly imposed tariffs.
"*We are very pleased with this confirmation, which strengthens Almonty's position as a key player in the global tungsten supply chain. The explicit exclusion of our products from the new tariff measures underscores the strategic importance of tungsten to national security, industrial independence, and resilient supply chains for American industry*."
This confirmation not only ensures the continued stability of Almonty's trade flows but also highlights the Company's role in supporting a secure and diversified supply chain to the United States. It highlights the strategic importance of tungsten, particularly in advancing US interests in national defense, critical manufacturing, and supply chain stability. Tungsten has long been recognized by the US government as a critical mineral with key applications in aerospace, defense systems, high-performance electronics, and clean energy technologies.
Almonty remains committed to developing and maintaining a reliable, Western-oriented supply chain for tungsten. It is working closely with its partners and stakeholders to meet the growing demand for secure and sustainable access to critical minerals for the US and its allies.
Restrictions from China are a done deal
Around 70% of the most important critical metals are found in China. In response to the US special tariffs, China is now stopping exports of six heavy rare earths not only to the US, but to all countries. China dominates the entire supply chain for many of these raw materials – from mining to processing and refining. For some metals (like gallium and graphite), China's share of the global market is over 80 - 90%. Countries such as the US, Germany, Japan, and South Korea are particularly affected, as they need these metals for semiconductors, batteries, chips, lasers, fiber optics, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. It is to be hoped that the announcement will not be implemented because even if only the US were affected, this would have an impact on the entire global market. Rare earths are used in an increasing number of modern-day products.
Relocation to the US simplifies US listing
Until mid-January, things were quiet at Almonty Industries Inc. (WKN: A1JSSD | ISIN: CA0203981034 | Ticker symbol: ALI). The share price hovered around the CAD 1 mark for a long time with moderate trading volumes. But then there was a series of significant company announcements in quick succession. Investors should pay particular attention to the verbal disputes between the US and China since Donald Trump took office. In response to the protection of US interests, Almonty announced on January 25 that it would relocate its headquarters from Canada to the US.
In the German magazine Hot Stock Report, CEO Lewis Black commented: "This is great - tungsten and molybdenum are now part of the war and struggle between the US and China for raw materials." Analysts see the escalations of recent weeks as a clear indication that the battle for essential materials has begun. Hardening metals are critical in the defense sector. With the highest melting point of any metal, tungsten is especially important in ammunition and armor. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly called on NATO to significantly increase its military spending if the US is to remain a long-term ally of the alliance. In addition to direct access to a declining industry, there is also the wide world of US-oriented funds, which dominate global stock market performance, especially in the high-tech sector. With a market capitalization of approximately USD 500 million, a listing in the US can now be envisaged.
Purchase agreements become an important core element
In addition to tungsten, the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which is now coming into focus, also has considerable molybdenum deposits. Almonty had not really included the metal in its internal calculations until 2025. Then came the surprising announcement that it had signed a billion-dollar purchase agreement with a SpaceX supplier. Starting in 2026, the Company plans to deliver up to 5,600 tons of molybdenum at a minimum price of USD 19 per pound – a guaranteed source of income of at least USD 234 million per year, regardless of market price fluctuations. The partner in question is SeAH M&S, the largest processor of molybdenum products in South Korea and the operator of the world's second-largest molybdenum oxide smelter.
Production to start in 2026, SpaceX strikes a deal.
The Sangdong molybdenum project, developed by Almonty Korea Moly Corp. (AKMC), has already been fully approved and is expected to begin production in late 2026, with the mine's life estimated at 60 years based on historical data from the Korean government. SeAH M&S, for its part, is building a USD 110 million metal and manufacturing facility in Temple, Texas, which will supply metal products to Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) and the US defense and commercial aerospace industries.
The purchase agreement with the Austrian Plansee Group also represents an important basis for future tungsten production. This is based on a minimum price of USD 235 per tonne, although the price has historically peaked at over USD 500. Plansee is one of the world's leading tungsten suppliers, with around 11,000 employees and production facilities in around 50 countries. The Austrian company's commitment underscores the global market shortage of this critical metal.
Analysts calculate high potential
On April 14, 2025, a new analysis was published by GBC. Analysts Matthias Greiffenberger and Cosmin Filker estimate revenues for the coming year 2026 at CAD 123.5 million, with this figure set to grow to CAD 252.9 million by 2027. This means the current market capitalization of just under CAD 700 million only represents 2.7x the revenues projected for 2027. Comparable raw material suppliers are valued significantly higher (see MP Materials in the following chapter). The analysts summarize with a conservative price target of CAD 4.20 over 12 months, representing a potential increase of 70%. Click here for the original report.
Lyndsay Malchuk from Stockhouse interviewed GBC Senior Analyst Matthias Greiffenberger about Almonty: "Almonty's Tungsten Push As Game Changer." Click here for the interview.
Source: Sphene Capital analyst Peter Thilo Hasler updated his calculations again in April and sees considerable potential: He raised his price target for Almonty from CAD 3.21 to CAD 5.20. The Munich-based expert expects significant revenues of over CAD 192 million and EBIT of CAD 69.4 million as soon as operations start in 2026. The bottom line is that a net profit of CAD 46.8 million or CAD 0.19 per share should be achievable. Based on today's price of CAD 2.50, the share would currently be valued at a 2026 P/E ratio of 13. Given the high market momentum, this ratio could even exceed 30. The metrics speak for themselves.
Valuation ratios show explosive potential
Tungsten, molybdenum, and rare earths are among the most critical materials. The example of MP Materials Corp from the US shows how the global shortage can affect company valuations. With the Mountain Pass project in California, the Company owns the largest rare earth property in the Western world. Revenue is estimated at around USD 192 million for 2024, up from USD 73 million in 2019. Analysts on the LSEG platform believe that revenues could rise to around USD 750 million by 2027. MP Materials is valued at just under USD 4.2 billion, around eight times Almonty Industries's value. Of course, the companies' revenues will develop differently, as the availability of metals is determined by the global market. However, Almonty Industries' starting position shows a significantly lower valuation compared to its US competitor. A good setup!
Conclusion: Scarcity drives valuation
The Almonty 12-month chart shows a clear breakout and a complete revaluation. The dual listing in Australia opened up extensive refinancing opportunities for the Company, but it also enjoys a high level of attention on Germany's highest-turnover trading platform (primarily Tradegate). A US listing may be added in the coming months. This would give liquidity another boost.
Investors have been waiting a long time for this moment. CEO Lewis Black has now taken all the necessary financing steps to align his raw materials group with the global situation. The milestones for the coming months are now set. Western industries can be confident that Almonty will achieve its goals. The share price should reflect the Company's special position in the market for critical metals much more clearly in the coming months.
The update is based on our initial report Report 12/2021.
